Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has scored nine goals in just four Premier League games this season – but can expected goals (xG) explain his devastating finishing?
Here at Sky Sports, we like expected goals – or at least most of us do.
Generally, we use xG as a measure of chance quality. The higher the xG for a given shot, the more likely the average player is to score from that chance.
But… not all shots are equal, and not all players are average.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Following Harvey Barnes’ stunning winner for Newcastle against Wolves, Jamie Redknapp discusses why more players don’t shoot from distance and labels xG within football as ‘nonsense’.
Enter hitman Haaland
Erling Haaland’s start to the season has been exceptional, but not all that surprising. You don’t have to worry much about chance quality when you’ve got Kevin De Bruyne and the rest creating for you.
So, could any half-decent striker put up his numbers in that City team? Probably not.
Haaland’s finishing and shot placement are elite, too. We can prove that using a metric called post-shot xG.
If xG measures chance quality, post-shot xG measures shot quality.
Sunday 22nd September 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
The average shot from 30 yards might only come off two per cent of the time (an xG of 0.02) but an exceptional 30-yarder, aimed directly into the top corner, might have a 95 per cent chance of going in. That 30-yarder has a post-shot xG of 0.95.
Haaland took 20 shots in City’s first four games this season. Those shots were so good, Opta’s model predicted he should have scored 1.5 goals more than could be expected from those chances.
It goes the other way, too. Fail to hit the target or make it too easy for the keeper to save and your post-shot xG will be lower than your xG. Tomas Soucek and, surprisingly, Diogo Jota have forgotten to bring their shooting boots so far this season.
Watch Man City vs Arsenal live on Sky Sports next Sunday, kick-off 4.30pm
Let’s see how it works
Here’s an example from City’s win at West Ham in August. Haaland receives the ball in a good position, but he still has work to do – Opta’s xG model predicts a 45 per cent chance of this situation ending in a goal.
Erling Haaland is about to shoot with a 45 per cent chance of scoring (xG of 0.45) before the ball leaves his boot
Haaland’s finish is exceptional – low and straight into the far corner. The post-shot xG for this goal is 0.83. Haaland’s shot is so good it almost doubles the chance of City scoring from this situation.
Erling Haaland slides it past Alphonse Areola. The shot had an 83 per cent chance of going in (a post-shot xG of 0.83) after the ball left his boot.
Haaland’s shot map demonstrates how effective he is when he shoots. Seven of his nine Premier League goals this season came from shots into the bottom-third of the goal – none of them are particularly central.
Excluding own goals and shots off target
So, Haaland can turn decent chances into great ones. That’s one of the big reasons why he averages a goal for every 22 touches in the Premier League, a rate far better than any other player over the last decade.
Whether you love or hate the rise of advanced metrics, football is, ultimately, a game with a simple goal: put the ball into the net. Erling Haaland embodies that simplicity. He puts the ball in places goalkeepers can’t reach, over and over again.
