Writer-director Ryan Coogler’s original box office hit Sinners will expand into IMAX 70mm starting May 15th in select domestic theaters for an extended summer run.
Michael B. Jordan stars in dual roles in “Sinners.”
Sinners Makes Heavenly Bargain
After a stunning second weekend drop of less than 5% domestic and worth $45.7 million, Sinners looks to top $230 million by the end of the weekend worldwide even while Marvel Studios gets summer movie season started with Thunderbolts*. That’s without the IMAX expansion, mind you, so expect to see Sinners exert real staying power into the first month of summer with this return to premium screens.
At this rate, Sinners looks to be on course for a roughly $290 million final gross, plus or minus anywhere from a few million to maybe $20 million, depending a lot on how other films’ perform and how much the IMAX revival packs in viewers. So far, all signs suggest audiences are loving the film, as fans and critics can’t stop talking about it – relevance and resonance go a long way, studios. Pay attention.
Michael B. Jordan is flexing his box office muscles and stamina, as is Coogler – so much so that Coogler made history with his deal as creator, to regain ownership of the film in 25 years. That’s something that will not only obviously be of enormous value to him as an artist and businessman, but of endless value to so many future filmmakers as well.
At the lower end of outcomes for the weekend, I believe Sinners is positioned to still finish with an impressive $225 million in worldwide receipts by close of business Sunday. On the higher end, $235-240 million could be in the box office cards through Sunday, depending on how well the rest of the top box office contenders shake out.
Thunderbolts* will easily win the first weekend of May and summer, both domestically and internationally, so a lot depends on whether the new MCU franchise plays at the higher end, middle, or low end of expectations.
The Minecraft Movie should remain in the top-five for the weekend, as it continues building toward a possible $900 cume around the world. (Be sure to watch for my Minecraft coverage this weekend, including its box office and a detailed look at Wētā FX’s work on the film.)
A relevant question is, will The Accountant 2 hold strong among action audiences in the face of Marvel’s latest release? If so how much do those two cut into Sinners’ audience? Will we see a repeat of April’s end, when there was so much audience enthusiasm to go around?
I think Sinners will finish with at least $230 million this weekend, on its way to a final worldwide gross of somewhere right around $300 million, or close to it on one side or the other. High-end, call it $310 million. Low-end probably sits around $265 million and presumes more typical weekly declines from this point forward. Again, much will depend on how the rest of the early-summer slate in May performs, so check out my summer movie season preview and box office predictions here.
As a side note – with both Coogler’s and Jordan’s already-bright star wattage shining super-bright now, I can’t help wondering if someone at Marvel is already thinking about multiverse possibilities that could see Killmonger as the one who grew up to take on the Black Panther mantle and rule Wakanda in some alternate reality that intersects the MCU.
It would undoubtably take a lot of consideration and care to pull something like that off and honor Chadwick Boseman’s brilliant performance and historic Black Panther film, as well as the themes and work and journey in the beautiful sequel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. If anyone can do it, however, it’s the team who gave us the first film and then found a way to live up to that legacy and loss with the second film.
Then again, if you can make original franchises like Sinners and get good creator-control deals, there’s plenty of reason to decline a return to superhero cinema in favor of creating your own personal blockbusters. And with Black Panther already set up to move forward in a new direction, we’d probably all much rather see Coogler and Jordan team up again for more totally new and different projects – or a sequel to Sinners.